Blended Weather for Boaters
What the heck is that you say? Well, it is something that can save your butt from getting caught 12 miles out in a storm, or something that will get you out there on a day that was predicted to be nasty and turned out to be PDG (pretty damn good). Confused? OK, lets start over... How many times have you canceled a fishing trip because the forecast called for small craft warnings or rain? How many times have you gone out only to have the crapola beat out of you because the seas turned nasty and it wasn't predicted? Weather prediction is not an exact science. Most meteorologists start their day off by getting NOAA reports. Then, they check out a few competitors, confirm a few readings, look at the satellite photos and radar images, maybe a glance at the almanac and then simply go with the majority prediction. Making this prediction more majority and making it easier for the next schmo to agree. Occasionally, someone will publicly go out on a limb and make an independent prediction that goes against the flow. My dad taught me early on that to get the real report, get it form different sources. If you go to the Conditions page on this site, you will notice there are 3 or 4 links for marine weather and at least as many for regular weather as well as several links for readings and images (both satellite and radar). When I'm about to take a trip, I investigate every one of those links and "blend" my own prediction. It has saved quite a few trips. As recent as this Memorial day, 2002, most TV predictions called for rain & thunder storms throughout the day. Varying only from 40% to 60% This was the predictions as late as Sunday evening. Around 5pm, I ran down to my computer and checked out all of the links, all of the predictions & all of the information I could get. I deduced from what I saw that the weather would hold. It looked like the rain would pass to the north. At least that's what the more updated sources said. The majority clearly said rain (when you factor in TV & radio), but I was paying attention to the more recently updated forecasts. I was right. The barbeque went off without a hitch. Had this been a fishing trip, I would have ventured out but stayed close to shore just in case. The point is this, unless you get a clear report from 1 or 2 places and it has been clear for the last few days, and I is predicted to be clear for another day or two, you need to get as much information as you possibly can and go with the majority and latest updated information. Not channel Seven 5:00 news. You want to salvage as many weekends as you possibly can and yet you MUST stay safe! So blend those reports, add a touch of your own wisdom and experience and see what develops. One last word to the wise, when in doubt, cancel or stay inshore. Keep an eye on the sky and stay safe.
Good Fishing - Captain John
(cr) June 2002